GIP (BlackRock), EQT, CalPERS, and QIA’s $33.4bn Acquisition of AES Corporation
- 2 days ago
- 7 min read
By Rasmus Sjögren, Alexander Henje, Haris Jasarevic and Nikolas Kakona (Stockholm School of Economics); Nikhil Freiherr Raitz Von Frentz, Max Fischer, Daniel Barker and Moritz Ibe (University of St Andrews)
Photo: Aron Marinelli (Unsplash)
Overview of the deal
Acquirer: BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), EQT, California Public Employees Retirement System (CaIPERS) and Qatar Investment Authority (QIA)
Target:Â AES Corporation
Implied Equity Value: USD $10.7 billion
Total Transaction Size: USD $33.4 billion
Closing Date:Â Q4 2026 / Q1 2027 (expected)
Target Advisor:Â J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Wells Fargo Securities LLC (financial); Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP and David Polk & Wardwell (legal)
Acquirer Advisor:Â Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and Citi (financial), Kirkland & Ellis and Simpson Thacher & Bartlett (legal)
On March 2, 2026, AES Corporation announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by a consortium comprising BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), EQT, CaIPERS and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) in an all-cash transaction. Under the terms of the agreement the AES shareholders are to receive $15.00 per share in cash, implying an equity value of $10.7 billion and a total enterprise value of $33.4 billion.
The rationale for the acquisition is centered on positioning AES for accelerated growth as a leading clean energy platform amid rapidly rising electricity demand from AI data centers, industrial expansion and the energy transition. Long-term institutional capital backing a private company will give AES greater strategic flexibility in deploying capital into its 3+ GW annual renewables pipeline and strengthening its regulated utility operations in high-growth markets, free from public market pressures regarding dividend coverage and quarterly results. The consortium of buyers aims to enhance operational scale, unlocking efficiencies through combined infrastructure expertise while realizing synergies and economies of scale across development, procurement and capital allocation.
Company Details (Acquirer - Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), Part of BlackRock)
Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) is a leading infrastructure investment platform, now operating as a division of BlackRock following its $12.5 billion acquisition by the asset management giant in October 2024. GIP invests in and operates complex infrastructure assets with a 600-strong global investment team, bringing valuable operating expertise to the AES acquisition consortium.
Founded: 2006
Headquartered: New York, NY, USA
CEO: Bayo Ogunlesi
Number of employees: ~600 investment professionals
AUM:Â ~$170 billion (as of March 2026)
EV: N/A - Private
LTM Revenue: N/A
LTM EBITDA: N/A
LTM EV/Revenue: N/A
LTM EV/EBITDA: N/A
Recent Transactions:Â
• 2024: Completed acquisition by BlackRock for ~$12.5 billion (cash and BlackRock shares), forming a combined infrastructure platform of ~$170+ billion in AUM.
• 2022: Led consortium to acquire Sydney Airport for AUD 23.6 billion.
• Ongoing: Portfolio management of Atlantic Aviation, Port of Melbourne, and Vantage Towers, among other assets globally.
Company Details (Acquirer - EQT)
EQT is a leading global investment organization focused on private equity, with a strong emphasis on active ownership and value creation in infrastructure, energy transition, healthcare, and technology. The Swedish firm applies hands-on improvements, digitalization and sustainable strategies to enhance long-term performance across its portfolio companies.
Founded: 1994
Headquartered: Stockholm, Sweden
CEO: Per Franzén
Number of employees: ~1900
Market Cap*:Â USD $34.3 billion
EV: USD $29.4 billion
LTM Revenue: USD $2.63 billion (2025)
LTM EBITDA: USD $1.42 billion
LTM EV/Revenue: 11.18x
LTM EV/EBITDA: 20.70x
Recent Transactions:
• Agreement to acquire Coller Capital (announced January 2026), a leading global secondaries firm with €28 billion in fee-generating assets under management.
• Acquisition of a 42% stake in Kelda Holdings Limited in early 2026.
• Joint acquisition of Urbaser (announced March 2026) alongside Blackstone Infrastructure, leading Spain-based waste management and environmental services platform.
Company Details (California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS))
CalPERS is the largest defined benefit public pension fund in the United States, managing assets across public equities, fixed income, real estate, infrastructure and private equity on behalf of approximately 2.4 million current and former public employees in California. CalPERS participates in the AES acquisition as a co-underwriter, consistent with its strategic objective to increase infrastructure allocations and build direct investment capabilities in assets offering long-dated, predictable cash flows.
Founded: 1932
Headquartered: Sacramento, California, USA
CEO: Marcie Frost
Number of employees:Â ~2700
AUM:Â USD $34.3 billion (as of June 2025)
EV: USD $29.4 billion
LTM Revenue: N/A
LTM EBITDA: N/A
LTM EV/Revenue: N/A
LTM EV/EBITDA: N/A
Recent Transactions:
• $24 billion roll-out in private markets, across credit, PE and real assets (announced Q1 2026)
• $500 million commitment to Infra Bear Partners (Q4 2025), expanding exposure to core infrastructure assets
• $1.5 billion in commitments to GI Partners across two data infrastructure vehicles (Q1 2026), supporting digital infrastructure growth driven by AI demand
Company Details (QIA, Qatar Investment Authority)
The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) is the sovereign wealth fund of the State of Qatar, tasked with preserving and growing the country’s financial reserves while advancing long-term economic diversification. QIA invests globally across public equities, private equity, infrastructure, real estate, technology and alternative assets. As a co-underwriter in the AES deal, QIA provides patient, long-term capital to support scalable clean energy platforms.
Founded: 2005
Headquartered: Doha, Qatar
CEO: Mohammed Saif Al-Sowaidi
Number of employees:Â ~650
AUM:Â USD $557 billion (2025)
EV: Â N/A
LTM Revenue: N/A
LTM EBITDA: N/A
LTM EV/Revenue: N/A
LTM EV/EBITDA: N/A
Recent Transactions:
• Investment in Ayar Labs (announced in March 2026) to advance AI infrastructure technology
• Increased investment in Anthropic through participation in the company’s $30 billion Series G financing
• Strategic partnership with Goldman Sachs Asset Management targeting up to $25 billion in fund commitments and co-investments (announced January 2026)
Company Details (Target - AES)
AES (NYSE: AES) is a global power company with a portfolio spanning renewable generation, regulated utilities, and energy infrastructure, supplying electricity across multiple markets and customer types. The company’s earnings mix is anchored by long-term contracted and regulated cash flows, while its growth strategy is heavily linked to expanding renewables and related grid solutions across its operating footprint.
Founded: 1981
Headquartered: Arlington, Virginia, United States
CEO: Andrés Gluski
Number of employees:Â ~8,336 (as of 12/31/2025)
Market Cap*:Â USD $10.07 billion
EV*: Â USD $39.44 billion
LTM Revenue: USD $12.23 billion (FY ended 12/31/2025)
LTM EBITDA: USD $2.87 billion Adjusted EBITDA (FY ended 12/31/2025)
LTM EV/Revenue: 3.2x (using EV*)
LTM EV/EBITDA: 13.7x (using EV* and Adj. EBITDA)
*As of 24/03/2026 (dynamic market data)
Projections and Assumptions
Short-Term Consequences
The $10.7 billion acquisition is structured as a fully equity-funded take-private, with the Consortium committing 100% of the purchase price without recourse to holding-company debt. The transaction assumes AES's existing $22.7 billion in proportional net debt, which is predominantly project-level and non-recourse, consistent with large-scale infrastructure financing conventions. In the near term, AES will absorb one-off transaction costs, including advisory fees and proxy preparation expenses, likely weighing on reported earnings through closing. The Consortium's stated commitment to preserving AES's investment-grade credit profile limits the risk of a near-term ratings deterioration, providing continuity for AES's existing project-level debt arrangements across its regulated and competitive businesses.
Strategically, the deal positions AES to capitalise on a structural inflection in US power demand. Freed from quarterly earnings constraints, management can accelerate capital deployment across AES Indiana and AES Ohio, both of which are experiencing growing electricity demand from industrial customers and AI-driven data centre development. Private ownership also removes the structural tension between dividend maintenance and growth investment, enabling AES to pursue its renewables pipeline at a pace that public market financing constraints would have made difficult. The Board had explicitly flagged that absent this transaction, a dividend reduction or significant equity issuance would likely have been required. AES's Latin American portfolio equally gains greater capital flexibility under private ownership.
Long-Term Upsides
The long-term upside in the acquisition comes from future growth and not short-term cost cutting. Moving AES into private ownership gives the company more freedom to invest over a longer time horizon without the same pressure from quarterly public financial reporting. AES and the buyer consortium said the transaction would help support growth beyond 2027 which might otherwise have required dividend cuts.
But the strongest benefit is AES’s exposure to rising electricity demand across the Americas, especially from renewables and data centres. AES Clean Energy already has a 46 GW US pipeline, a 7.6 GW backlog of projects (signed long-term contracts), and more than $12bn budgeted for projects that are contracted or under construction. AES also said that growth in AI and data centres is expected to be a major driver of US renewables demand. At AES Indiana around 390 MW of expected new demand from data centre customers was identified in 2025. This trend is already feeding into real utility load growth.
AES’s utilities also strengthen the long-term case. Its US utilities serve around 1.1 million customers. This gives the business a more stable cash flow. This stability can help support investment in higher growth areas such as renewables and AI relevant infrastructure. In addition, AES Clean Energy already has 10,961 MW operating in the US and another 3,031 MW under construction.
Risks and Uncertainties
Regulatory approval from dozens of jurisdictions poses as the acquisition's first hurdle, with the CFIUS likely to scrutinize Qatar's sovereign wealth fund involvement in U.S. infrastructure. Asset sales demanded as a condition could substantially increase deal costs and erode expected synergies. Once closed, AES's regulated utilities in Ohio and Indiana may face ongoing rate pressures. Though the consortium has promised that rates will not rise, this promise exists outside any enforceable contract, leaving it vulnerable to rate cases over time.
More fundamentally, the 40% premium rests on sustained AI-driven demand for data center power. If chip efficiency improves faster than expected or AI deployments slow, that demand assumption weakens, and the valuation deteriorates. AES also carries a $4 billion lawsuit in Panama over alleged anti-competitive behaviour, exposing the acquirers to potential cash drain and reputational damage.
Finally, exiting at $33 billion will be difficult. Taking AES public again is the realistic path, but that only works if capital markets cooperate and investors want exposure to the company.
“QIA is committed to making energy transition a reality by providing long-term capital to companies with proven capabilities in delivering operational excellence to the communities they serve." - Mohammed Saif Al-Sowaidi, CEO, Qatar Investment Authority